KPMG Economics

Economic Coordinates

Explore analysis of key data indicators, such as job creation and the labor market, consumer spending, inflation, investment, housing and monetary policy. These combined data points are indicators of the overall health of the economy.

• Trump and allies draw up plan to erode Fed’s independence, WSJ reports | MSNBC
  According to a new Wall Street Journal report, Trump and his allies have drafted plans to limit the Federal Reserve’s independence and align the central bank with the administration's interests if the former president wins a second term. Diane Swonk, Chief Economist at KPMG, joins Ali Velshi to discuss the significance of the President asserting more control over the Federal Reserve, how Trump could reshape the banks to suit his interests, and the importance of the Fed’s independence given the current interest rates and inflation.
  April 27, 2024 | MSNBC

• That soft landing is suddenly looking rocky | Morning Brew
  Looking ahead…the Fed is stuck in “monetary policy purgatory,” said KPMG’s chief economist, as it deliberates if and when it will cut rates. All options are on the table, including a dreaded rate hike.
  April 26, 2024 | Morning Brew

• U.S. Growth Slowed in First Quarter, but Inflation Remained a Bug | The New York Times
  “It is a huge shift because all of a sudden ‘higher for longer’ could mean another hike,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. For now, she said, the Fed is stuck in “monetary policy purgatory.”
  April 25, 2024 | The New York Times

• Number of New Homes for Sale Surges | Newsweek
  "The spring home-buying season has kicked off but is being hampered by low supply and the highest mortgage rates since November," Yelena Maleyevm KPMG's senior economist, shared in a note shared with Newsweek. "Builders are benefiting from tight supply in the resale market; however, they cannot ramp up fast enough to meet demand."
  April 23, 2024 | Newsweek

• Fed Resets Clock on Cuts and Questions If Rates Are High Enough | Bloomberg
  A string of disappointing inflation data has forced the Federal Reserve to reset the clock on its first interest-rate cut and re-evaluate the trajectory of price growth. Chair Jerome Powell cemented that message this week when he said it’s likely going to take “longer than expected” to gain the confidence needed to lower rates, dashing hopes for more than two cuts in 2024. Some worry there may be none at all. “This is confirmation that the Fed’s willing to wait it out,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. “There’s concern of how little it took to stimulate the economy, that there’s still a lot of demand.”
  April 19, 2024 | Bloomberg

• U.S. Job Growth Jumped in March | Inc.
  "We still have quite a healthy labor market," says Yelena Maleyev, an economist at KPMG. And this still-strong job growth persists even despite historically high interest rates, she notes, which remain at a 23-year peak. "Workers have jobs, low unemployment rates in many states, and still strong hiring across many sectors." Still, to bring inflation down, the Federal Reserve is going to be keeping an eye on still-sticky measures, like wage growth. In this jobs report, average hourly earnings increased 0.3% from February and 4.1% year-over-year. This is a slower year-over-year pace than in February of 4.3%, but is likely still too high for the Fed, Maleyev says.
  April 05, 2024 | Inc.

• 5 Things to Know About Consumers in 2024 | National Jeweler
  The National Retail Federation holds its annual Retail’s Big Show event in New York City every January, bringing together retail professionals, analysts, and experts for a few days of education and networking.
  
  During the show, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz held a press briefing about the state of the economy, inviting analyst Brian Nagel of Oppenheimer and Kenneth Kim, a senior economist at KPMG, to share their insights and predictions for the year ahead. Kim noted the disconnect between consumer sentiment and consumer behavior. To Kim, the primary reason for the disconnect was consumers being “shocked” by how high gas prices and food prices climbed. “It was certainly a shock and that’s why the consumer sentiment and attitudes were soured by the [amount] consumers’ households were paying for everyday goods and services,” he said. That might seem like it would result in lower spending, but it didn’t, he said, because of the job market. He added that consumer attitudes and consumer spending aren’t always so misaligned, but COVID “really turned the economy upside down, not just in the U.S., but throughout the world.”
  April 01, 2024 | National Jeweler